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Prediction for CME (2024-10-01T23:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-10-01T23:09Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33659/-1
CME Note: Developing CME with bulk seen predominantly to the southeast in early frames with a very faint, oval-shaped/asymmetric halo shock portion, associated with an X7.1-class flare and associated eruption from AR3842 (S17E18). Coronal signatures include an EUV wave and large-scale dimming in SDO 171/193 with magnetic field line movement off the southern and southeast limbs and dimming of footpoints bridging the Active Region 3842 (S17E18) in GOES 284. [PRELIMINARY] closed out a non-arrival.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-10-03T22:39Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-02 04:22
 - Time at C2: 2024-10-01 23:09
 - Radial speed: 594.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 38 deg
 - Eruption location: S10E19
 Inferences:
   - Associated flare: X7.1 (S18E16). Peak at 2024-10-01 21:58
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 811.49 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2024-10-03 22:39 (i.e. predicted transit time: 47.52 hours)
Lead Time: 31.65 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2024-10-02T15:00Z
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